Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
